The Polls

the other day, i was watching this video of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which sparked the First World War, the hostilities that existed among nations in 1914 resemble the war stance among today's military alliances, today, the war in Ukraine and the hostilities in Taiwan have divided the world in powerful military coalitions....therefore, if Putin, Zelensky, Trump, summits becomes a reality, there is a real danger if the organizing nations are not exaggeratedly careful in the security, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which sparked World War 1 could repeat today, if Vladimir Putin is assassinated in those meetings could trigger World War 3....remember that he could also be arrested, which will escalate todays world conflicts, for that reason, the summit venues needs to be chosen carefully to prevent the events that led to WW1....take care all

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand

 
While waiting for other European leaders to trickle into the East Room to discuss a security resolution for Ukraine and his recent meeting with Putin, Trump was caught on a hot mic sharing his perspective with Macron.

"I think he wants to make a deal,” Trump said quietly. “I think he wants to make a deal for me. Do you understand? As crazy as it sounds."

 
www.theguardian.com

Donald Trump is becoming the greatest unifier of Europe since the end of the cold war | Fabrizio Tassinari

The US president may be helping Putin to destroy the west, but his vanity is causing Europeans to speak with one voice in defence of Ukraine, says Fabrizio Tassinari of the European University Institute in Florence
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

In Nov 2021, I was wondering why not provide Ukraine NATO like security guarantees while also accommodating Putin’s demands for new European security architecture. It looks like he will get both plus 20% of Ukraine. After 3.5 years of war and death, it increasingly looks like this could have been negotiated back in 2021 before the invasion.
 
salsim said:
1. Marking 80 years since the atomic bombing of Hiroshima....On August 6, 1945, the U.S. dropped the first atomic weapon of war on the Japanese city of Hiroshima, killing tens of thousands of people. 80 years later, NBC News’ Janis Mackey Frayer traveled to Hiroshima to visit the city’s Peace Memorial Park and to speak with survivors about the lasting impact

2. What happened at Hiroshima 80 years ago....The BBC met some of the last ‘Hibakusha’, survivors of the two atomic bombs who were children when the events took place, and have suffered from devastating long-term mental and physical effects. With the current threat of nuclear war looming, this documentary examines what we can learn now from the generation who survived near annihilation


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No one is learning ****. They don't care.
 
www.theguardian.com

Putin must tread carefully amid hyped up expectations of breakthrough

Goal of European leaders at White House meeting was to try to push the Russian leader into a corner
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Interesting take. None of the three parties -Putin, Trump, or EU leaders are honest brokers. They are all using Ukraine to advance their own goals.

Putin wants Ukraine out of American or EU sphere.

EU wants to use Ukraine to weaken Russia and keep fighting until some day in future Ukraine can regain the territory. They have decided they can’t do business with Putin anymore.

Neocon dominant USA foreign establishment has similar goals like EU but also don’t want anyone challenging American hegemony. EU is never going to challenge it. That leaves Russia and China. Neocons had wanted unipolar world ever since end of cold war.

Trump wants Nobel peace prize. He has grudge against Zelensky. Admires Putin. Wants his ego massaged. Has an eye on Ukraine’s minerals. Want to sell weapons to Ukraine as long as someone pays for it. Wants to do business with Russia.
 
Offbeat said:
Trump wants Nobel peace prize.
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He can hardly ever get it. Nobel peace prize is nominated from 5 norwegians (yes, not from swedish Stockholm) who are part of the european elite which deeply dislikes Trump. Not to mention I don't see him qualified for it, although he dislikes open wars.

From the Guardian article:
"Europeans (hopefully) know that Putin will never agree to Nato troops in Ukraine. They know that Putin doesn’t want to meet Zelenskyy."

I hope Putin and Zelenskyy will never meet, and I don't see it necessary for negotiations. Both hate each other profoundly to the extent they wouldn't be sad to see the other one dying. If they ever meet they hopefully do not try to smile. The least I want to see is both exchanging jokes after all that years of war.

I still don't see how peace should be possible. More likely an ongoing conflict over decades until total exhaustion makes a new generation finally come to finish it. Like at the end of the Thirty Years' War they still didn't agree but exhaustion was too strong. But territory of nowadays Germany was deeply ruined for a century, and the same may happen to Ukraine. To insist in 2021 on wanting to join NATO didn't turn out good for them.
 
MamboJazz said:
He can hardly ever get it.
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Imagine if there is peace agreement (forced upon Ukraine) and the Noble peace prize is awarded to Zelensky :) Trump would go bonkers, degenerate the peace prize he so craved, bar Nobel peace committee members from entering the USA, and any other vindictive acts he can muster.
 
I believe the best-case realistic outcome between Russia and Ukraine would be something similar to North and South Korea: a cease fire between two countries that are technically still at war 75 years later but that don't fire weapons at each other that kill a lot of people. They still engage in sabotage and occasional assassinations but no large-scale war operations.

Regarding Nobel peace prize: I hope the Norwegian parliament is finally done with wiping egg off their faces for several really bad decisions when granting the peace prize to political leaders.
The list of really bad decisions: Kissinger, Obama, Abiy Ahmed Ali. All three intensified wars or started new ones AFTER receiving the peace prize.
 

Russia won’t accept British, German, or French troops in Ukraine. No country in Russia’s place would agree. That’s like USA agreeing to Chinese troops in Mexico to fight drug cartels and maintain peace with the USA.

What are Europeans smoking when it comes to troop deployments in Ukraine. That too tens of thousands? Would “NATO” troops in Ukraine coming under fire invoke article 5? That would be very dangerous.

EU who now can’t stand Putin, can’t wish away geography. You have to live with the big bear. Angela Merkel had a right approach though people criticize her in hindsight. Russia is getting closer to China. It is not a natural alliance and marriage of convenience. USA has been needling Russia using Ukraine and other countries for a very long time. EU needs to think independently and pragmatically. Either die on hill of principles or find a way to live.
 
U.S. F-35 pilots escort the Russian President's aircraft from Alaska to Siberia to hand over Putin's plane to the Russian Su-57s....remember that there is a close frontier from Alaska to Siberia, take care all

 
www.theguardian.com

Woody Allen rebuts Ukrainian condemnation over Moscow film festival appearance

The director said he did not ‘feel cutting off artistic conversations is ever a good way to help’ after Ukraine calls the film-maker’s participation a ‘disgrace’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

These kind of statements and things from Ukrainian govt, rub people the wrong way. This has been going on in various forms since beginning of the conflict. It includes trying to campaign against the Russian athletes at individual level. Ukriane can’t expect other countries and people to stop all interactions with Russia or Russian culture.
 
the other day, i was watching this interesting documentary where Supercar Blondie explores the Lockheed Martin facility and the F-35....in the video, we meet Siren, an F-35 pilot who guides Supercar Blondie through her experience with the stealth jet

 
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www.theguardian.com

The EU surrendered to Trump over trade tariffs – now it’s in danger of capitulating again | Thierry Breton

A fresh US assault is aimed at Europe’s right to regulate tech. It’s an outrage – and we must resist it, says former European commissioner Thierry Breton
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

EU is bending backwards without getting anything in return. It is really enabling Trump and will end up giving him everything he asks for. It was already accepted unequal tarrif deal like this article says. Trump admin is now demanding it to repeal the rules and regulations on how it chooses to govern itself.

EU is giving up too much in hopes of little returns from the USA on Ukraine. I am not sure why the major European powers are so tunneled vision about Russia-Ukraine, that they are bending over backwards: to appease Trump in the rest of things like tariff, etc. That too when there is no confidence Trump will stick to any assurances. At this point I can’t tell if they are more afraid of Trump or Putin.

Putin is only a threat. Trump is running roughshod over them already.
 
Offbeat said:
www.theguardian.com

The EU surrendered to Trump over trade tariffs – now it’s in danger of capitulating again | Thierry Breton

A fresh US assault is aimed at Europe’s right to regulate tech. It’s an outrage – and we must resist it, says former European commissioner Thierry Breton
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

EU is bending backwards without getting anything in return. It is really enabling Trump and will end up giving him everything he asks for. It was already accepted unequal tarrif deal like this article says. Trump admin is now demanding it to repeal the rules and regulations on how it chooses to govern itself.

EU is giving up too much in hopes of little returns from the USA on Ukraine. I am not sure why the major European powers are so tunneled vision about Russia-Ukraine, that they are bending over backwards: to appease Trump in the rest of things like tariff, etc. That too when there is no confidence Trump will stick to any assurances. At this point I can’t tell if they are more afraid of Trump or Putin.

Putin is only a threat. Trump is running roughshod over them already.
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Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said on Thursday that the security of Baltic states and Germany was inseparable, vowing closer cooperation to counter what he said was Russia’s combination of conventional and unconventional attacks as he headed to Tallinn.

“The security of the Baltics is also our security in Germany," Wadephul said ahead of his visit to Estonia and Denmark.

In cold calculations it is not linked. Assuming Putin has designs over Baltics, he is not going to attack Germany.

To be very practical. Baltics are part of NATO and covered under article 5. Therefore security of not only Baltics but every other country in NATO is linked to Germany.

Instead of making unnecessary pronouncements, it is better for European countries to engage China and others quietly on this issue. China has leverage over Putin. So does to lesser extent India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. None of these including China would like Putin marching into Baltics. That much instability isn’t good. It would create economic headaches for those outside Europe.

I don’t think taking more vocal adversarial stand is going to deter Putin if that is the aim.

Best course for European powers is to:

1. Build their own defence base. It has been too reliant on the USA
2. No longer assume USA is dependable partner.
3. Contain the Ukrainian conflict than fanning it and seeing geopolitics through Ukraine lens.
4. Be quieter and carry big sticks. These increasingly loud frequent proclamations against Putin and Russia are not very productive.
5. Build geopolitical alliances with non-western world. Like some of the countries mentioned to contain Putin through back channel diplomacy.
 
Offbeat said:
Best course for European powers is to:

1. Build their own defense base. It has been too reliant on the USA
2. No longer assume USA is dependable partner.
3. Contain the Ukrainian conflict than fanning it and seeing geopolitics through Ukraine lens.
4. Be quieter and carry big sticks. These increasingly loud frequent proclamations against Putin and Russia are not very productive.
5. Build geopolitical alliances with non-western world. Like some of the countries mentioned to contain Putin through back-channel diplomacy.
Click to expand...
How do you know they are not doing that?
"4. Be quieter...." As you stated. We would not know or find out if they are doing No 5. They are doing No 1 and No 2 but it takes time.... a lot of time. The US military industrial complex was constructed in WW2 and never slowed down. The Europeans slowed defense spending drastically in the 1990s and have only started ramping up again since 2022.

In regard to the topic of the link: US Americas would actually like to have the same privacy protections from tech industries that Europeans enjoy. What the Europeans should be doing is outlining directly to the American people what tech is doing with their data in the US and what they cannot (legally) do in the EU. They do do it illegally through back channels in the EU and one of these days they will get caught.
 
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