The Polls

bailar y tocar said:
Its a no-go without security guarantees or NATO membership. Neither will happen anytime soon.

Even the 47 orange blob does not believe anything Putin says anymore. To convince a narcissist whom one can butter up endlessly that one is lying and has no intent to end the war until all objectives are achieved - That is quite the achievement by Putin.
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Putin is the only world leader that hasn’t buttered up Trump.

The rest are trying to play to his ego through flattery, ingratiating, figuratively genuflecting like at recent NATO meeting where he affirmed commitment to the clause 5 (or whatever it is called regarding common defence).

I doubt Trump knows what he is going to do next day. Look at how is threatening friends and allies from Canada to Japan with tariff rates. He is makes up things on the whim on social media. That’s how world comes to know what is in his mind. Which changes constantly. Esp with tariffs. He wants to impose tariffs on Brazil because the judiciary over there is investigating its former president. That is clear interference in another democratic country’s internal affairs. He using tariff as a stick to threaten the rest irrespective of whether it has to do anything with trade.
 
Offbeat said:
Putin is the only world leader that hasn’t buttered up Trump.
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You missed what 47 stated the other day in his social media account.

From the NY Times daily newsletter
Ukraine War: President Trump expressed frustration with Valdimir Putin. "We get a lot of bullssss thrown at us by Putin," he said. "He's very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless."

But you are correct on the rest. 47 does not know what he wants or if he even wants what he thinks he wants. On tariffs, he says he wants the revenue to reduce taxes on billionaires even more but then he says he wants to reduce the trade deficit which would mean encouraging manufacturing in the US and reducing the revenue from those tariffs. As I said, I don't think his brain matter can compute contrary objectives.

The main issue here is that the Republican controlled US Congress has abdicated its power and is going along with everything he says even when it is contradictory.

Putin, otoh, cannot be believed at any time regardless of what he promises. And if even 47 can figure that out....

In the meantime, I would not be surprised if Zelensky has agreed to ship more Rare Earth Elements that the US desperately needs for the defense industry. China put a hold on exports, and they control 80% of global supply. China supposedly agreed to resume shipping under special export licenses. If that is true, I bet they require that the customer detail how and where the material is used. US defense contractors would not be able to share that information. Xi Jin Peng has got 47's nuts in a squeeze clamp.
 
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bailar y tocar said:
You missed what 47 stated the other day in his social media account.

From the NY Times daily newsletter
Ukraine War: President Trump expressed frustration with Valdimir Putin. "We get a lot of bullssss thrown at us by Putin," he said. "He's very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless."
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I don’t believe he is being any more nice to Trump than anyone else. Other leaders who try to humor, Trump have already discussed the political objectives and are trying to convince Trump to align with then. Putin hardly cares if Trump aligns or not. Other friends of the USA don’t have thatfriends luxury.



bailar y tocar said:
Putin, otoh, cannot be believed at any time regardless of what he promises. And if even 47 can figure that out....
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That is not hard for anyone to tell.

bailar y tocar said:
In the meantime, I would not be surprised if Zelensky has agreed to ship more Rare Earth Elements that the US desperately needs for the defense industry. M
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It will be at least 5-10 years away. Ukraine only has deposits. These need to be excavated and then refined. Plus some of the areas are in the conflict zone or Russian occupied western Ukraine.
 
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, said that countries friendly to Iran are "ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads." The Russian official's comment came after the U.S. carried out attacks targeting three nuclear sites across Iran

it's not an exaggeration to think that Iran could already have nuclear warheads in their arsenal....with friends like Russia, China, and North Korea

1. After Russia's hint of nuclear weapons for Iran, China's declaration in Europe
2. Beijing seeks to replace the U.S. as a Middle East peacemaker? warns of “nuclear disaster”


 
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the other day i was watching this video of the explosion of the TSAR, the most powerful nuclear weapon ever created and tested....if we compare the Tsar which have around 58 Megatons of TNT with the two nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Little Boy dropped in Hiroshima had around 15 Kilotons of dynamite and the Fat Man had around 20 Kilotons of dynamite respectively, that comparison tell us that today's nuclear weapons are far more devastating and that a nuclear war could destroy the planet living no winners....on June 23, 2025, Vladimir Putin announced the start of mass production for the Oreshnik hypersonic missile (irbm), the Oreshnik can carry multiple nuclear warheads....lets hope world leaders give diplomacy a chance to end today's world conflicts, take care all

 
salsim said:
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, said that countries friendly to Iran are "ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads."
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This is two weeks old. That guy always is too bombastic and talks like crazy. Russia is hardly coming to Iranian help. Later Russians denied any intent of providing any nuclear help to Iran. Yesterday the news leaked that Russians are pressing Iranians to cut a deal with the USA on zero processed Uranium stored locally. Which is giving up all the processed Uranium.


salsim said:
it's not an exaggeration to think that Iran could already have nuclear warheads in their arsenal....with friends like Russia, China, and North Korea
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Neither China nor Russia is going to give them nukes. No country will give nukes to another country.

Both Russia and China have vested interests with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, the other big players in the region. No one wants to see nuclear Iran including Türkiye.

North Korea is not going to risk. If they try to ship, they will get caught. I don’t see any warm relationship between those two except Russia is buying arms from both. During 12 days conflict neither Russia nor China supplied conventional arms to Iran. That speaks volumes.


salsim said:
1. After Russia's hint of nuclear weapons for Iran, China's declaration in Europe
2. Beijing seeks to replace the U.S. as a Middle East peacemaker? warns of “nuclear disaster”
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Beijing is still not powerful enough to replace the USA in the Middle East. Its main interest is oil flowing from there which I think makes about 40% of its oil imports.

Beijing has a different doctrine. While Russia had military presence in Syria and parts of Africa, Beijing hasn’t gone that route. It has small bases.
 
MamboJazz said:
Not sure what all this terror is aiming at. War history shows countries have never given up just because of heavy air bombing. Maybe ukrainians would prefer now peace talks, but during war time are no elections and so government won't change. Selenski can not agree to sign land losses because then he will get murdered by his own ultra nationalists - expecting him to sign his own death penalty is expecting a bit too much. So nothing will change and the war will continue for years and years. But sure the war is super interesting for the defense industry.
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I for one find the terror in innocent people dying.
 
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk

Former Russian PM Says Putin Could Be Forced To End The Ukraine War This Year

Russia's economy is struggling as the conflict continues.
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk www.huffingtonpost.co.uk

It is hard to tell what Putin’s end-game in Ukraine is unless he wants a permanent conflict. When Trump came in, he was willing to give in to all significant Putin demands. Including no NATO membership for Ukraine.

There is no way his army can extend its control beyond 19% of the eastern Ukraine it holds. Economically the war will start to be drain on Russian economy. The oil prices are already low.
 

European Union certain caved in, to give Trump an upper hand. Not sure what happens to all these tariff deals after Trump’s second term. I doubt the next admin is going to keep tariffs. But if American goods are charged zero tariffs when exported to Europe and incoming European goods are taxed at 15%, not sure the next admin has incentive to revisit unless it is very pro-EU presidency in the USA.

French don’t like the deal. Germany probably does since it exports cars and other stuff to the USA market. Higher tariffs would hurt German economy more than French ?

Caught between Putin and Trump is like being caught between a rock and a hard place for the European Union.
 
1. The world’s leading hunger watchdog group says “the worst case scenario of famine” is unfolding in Gaza as Israel pauses fighting in parts of the region. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier this week that "there is no policy of starvation in Gaza," but President Donald Trump broke with his Middle East ally. “That's real starvation stuff. I see it, and you can’t fake that,” Trump says. NBC’s Matt Bradley reports for TODAY

2. Gangs hoard food aid entering Gaza and resell it at exorbitant prices


 
Offbeat said:

European Union certain caved in, to give Trump an upper hand. Not sure what happens to all these tariff deals after Trump’s second term. I doubt the next admin is going to keep tariffs. But if American goods are charged zero tariffs when exported to Europe and incoming European goods are taxed at 15%, not sure the next admin has incentive to revisit unless it is very pro-EU presidency in the USA.

French don’t like the deal. Germany probably does since it exports cars and other stuff to the USA market. Higher tariffs would hurt German economy more than French ?

Caught between Putin and Trump is like being caught between a rock and a hard place for the European Union.
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The EU negotiators are looking at the big picture unlike the smallminded real estate developer they are dealing with.
What does the EU really really need from the US:
  • The US nuclear shield
  • US weapons exports that can be delivered to Ukraine
  • Continued sanctions on Russia
  • Extended sanctions on Russia's remaining trading partners
Whoa... no 4: 47 is imposing extra tariffs on India because they are importing Russian oil. That was fast. I would say the EU got everything they wanted.

Also....

The US tariffs on EU products exported to the US are paid by US consumers.
 
Offbeat said:
European Union certain caved in, to give Trump an upper hand. Not sure what happens to all these tariff deals after Trump’s second term. I doubt the next admin is going to keep tariffs. But if American goods are charged zero tariffs when exported to Europe and incoming European goods are taxed at 15%, not sure the next admin has incentive to revisit unless it is very pro-EU presidency in the USA.

French don’t like the deal. Germany probably does since it exports cars and other stuff to the USA market. Higher tariffs would hurt German economy more than French ?

Caught between Putin and Trump is like being caught between a rock and a hard place for the European Union.
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a finnish politician assures the best orbit for Europe....if the problem lies in the east, then the solution must be found in the west, even an imperfect deal with Trump is better than no deal at all

 
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salsim said:
a finnish politician assures the best orbit for Europe....if the problem lies in the east, then the solution must be found in the west, even an imperfect deal with Trump is better than no deal at all

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Until Trump again changes the mind to do a deal with the devil - Putin. :D

China, Brazil and India are so far only one not giving it to Trump.

Japan also gave into kind of similar terms as European Union. Unlike European Union, Japan in the past has certain protections that act as barrier to American goods. I am sure they are still around.
 
bailar y tocar said:
The EU negotiators are looking at the big picture unlike the smallminded real estate developer they are dealing with.
What does the EU really really need from the US:
  • The US nuclear shield
  • US weapons exports that can be delivered to Ukraine
  • Continued sanctions on Russia
  • Extended sanctions on Russia's remaining trading partners
Whoa... no 4: 47 is imposing extra tariffs on India because they are importing Russian oil. That was fast. I would say the EU got everything they wanted.

Also....

The US tariffs on EU products exported to the US are paid by US consumers.
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This is not going to work out well for European Union in the long run. They better hope this is only for 3 years or shorter.

When it comes to world affairs, European Union has been remarkably short sighted for a long time. It is both less respected and less feared by the rest of the world when compared to USA, Russia, and China.

Btw most of the crude imported by India is resold to Europeans after it is refined (and blended with other crude oil). That is because of EU’s own rule that origin of oil is where it is refined. I don’t know whether it is a loophole or not. From what I understand it is also internationally acceptable practice about determining origins of oil. After EU placed sanctions on 2nd largest refinery in India in which the Russian oil company is 49% JV partner, the tankers enroute to Europe were diverted to Africa. There is no shortage of takers. Until Ukraine invasion the Russian oil accounted for 0.2% of Indian crude oil imports. Europe was the largest importer. Since Russian crude oil was forced to price below market by EU sanctions, India imported 40% of its crude oil from Russia.

If EU wants no one to buy Russian oil, that will be significant chunk off the oil market. As supply demand will prevail, this could increase the price of oil to $120/barrel or more. Leading to inflation worldwide including Europe. A lot of economic pain.

 
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