The Polls

Global diplomacy today is less about principles and more about power. Nations invoke morality selectively, shifting positions based on strategic interest — turning geopolitics into a carefully staged theatre....The story isn’t about who’s right, but who decides what “right” means. Until true accountability replaces scripted optics, global diplomacy will remain a stage play, where principles are props and power decides the plot


 
Offbeat said:
This is not going to work out well for European Union in the long run. They better hope this is only for 3 years or shorter.
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Nothing is going to work out for anyone in the long run. Everyone is hoping this is for 3 years or shorter.

err... except China.

China is gaining with every move 47 has made. If Xi Jin Peng had the ability to express emotion, he would be fist bumping, high fiving or whatever he would do in China to celebrate with his minions at every turn of events. I don't know what the typical Chinese gesture is to express "glee", but whatever it is, Chinese leadership has every reason to celebrate.

In short order (not a comprehensive list):
  • US defense industry is dependent on Chinese rare earths. Some of them are critical and China has more than 80% of the world supply right now.
  • China has more biotech startups than the US and they are delivering more innovation at a faster pace than US startups. Meanwhile 47 cut funding to US Universities, the engine of US Biotech growth.
  • Chinese leadership does not worry about internal dissent if the domestic economy slows down due to a temporary decline in exports due to tariffs. They can weather a strain for a long time. They proved this with their ridiculous lockdowns during covid. Their leadership knows this.
  • No one is talking about the Chinese real estate market anymore. It has actually collapsed but that is not news anymore.
  • China needs to get rich before it gets old. They are on the right track at this pace. Their demographic bubble will burst in about 10-20 years. Meanwhile 47 and his minions are deporting immigrants, the only source of population growth in the US.
  • Chinese investment in EVs and the entire infrastructure of electrified mobility is going to pay off in a few years. They will limit the growth prospects of the automotive industry of other countries.
  • Chinese investment in renewable energy is paying off already. They have a dominant position worldwide.
I think MAGA should rebrand itself as MCGA = Make China Great Again
 
China had already reached its peak oil demand. From now on, China’s import of oil will be decreasing. More share of non-fossil fuel will power the China’s energy needs.
 
1. Marking 80 years since the atomic bombing of Hiroshima....On August 6, 1945, the U.S. dropped the first atomic weapon of war on the Japanese city of Hiroshima, killing tens of thousands of people. 80 years later, NBC News’ Janis Mackey Frayer traveled to Hiroshima to visit the city’s Peace Memorial Park and to speak with survivors about the lasting impact

2. What happened at Hiroshima 80 years ago....The BBC met some of the last ‘Hibakusha’, survivors of the two atomic bombs who were children when the events took place, and have suffered from devastating long-term mental and physical effects. With the current threat of nuclear war looming, this documentary examines what we can learn now from the generation who survived near annihilation


 
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Offbeat said:

Surprising that he is facing backlash from conservatives for suspending arms to Israel. Right now most of the people in the west have soured on Israel for its actions in Gaza. Surprising that right wing in Germany is so staunchly pro-Israel.
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This article is click bait sensationalism.
The current generic poll results:
www.wahlrecht.de

Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl

Übersicht der aktuellen Ergebnisse der Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl
www.wahlrecht.de www.wahlrecht.de
The two parties have been polling roughly equivalent (within the margin of error) at around 23-26% for the right wing AfD and 24-29% for the center right CDU/CSU.
Neither value is sufficient to govern in any state or at the federal level w/o one or more coalition partners.
If the CDU decided to form a coalition with the AfD anywhere, anytime, that would be a major development that would justify news coverage. Otherwise not.
 

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Offbeat said:

Surprising that he is facing backlash from conservatives for suspending arms to Israel. Right now most of the people in the west have soured on Israel for its actions in Gaza. Surprising that right wing in Germany is so staunchly pro-Israel.
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Not at all surprising. The right wing parties in Europe are extremely anti-muslim - so which country is also extremely anti-muslim? Voila!!
 
Offbeat said:
www.theguardian.com

How German media outlets helped pave the way for Israel’s murder of journalists in Gaza | Hanno Hauenstein

In the run-up to this week’s deadly attacks, stories linking Palestinian reporters to Hamas gained currency, says Berlin-based journalist Hanno Hauenstein
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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The "Bild Zeitung" mentioned in the article is a solid right wing media outlet similar to Fox News in the US.
The other two media organizations involvement is more troubling. SZ and the DJV are widely respected and considered independent.
By contrast, Die Zeit (another liberal outlet) clearly calls out Israel's actions as genocide.
 
Trump-Putin to meet in Alaska this Friday, it will be the first visit by a Russian leader to Alaska, even though, the state was part of the Russian Empire until 1867, the state news agency TASS said....the summit will take place at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson outside Anchorage, according to a White House official....it’s Putin’s first trip to the U.S. since 2015 for the U.N. General Assembly in New York, because the U.S. isn’t a member of the International Criminal Court, which in 2023 issued a warrant for Putin on war crimes accusations, it’s under no obligation to arrest him

Trump warns of "very severe consequences" if Putin does not agree to stop the war after the summit

 

www.nbcnews.com

Trump promises 'peace agreement' in Ukraine after Putin summit, reversing calls for a ceasefire

Trump's reversal has sparked fears that Trump has adopted Putin's position, as analysts warned of potentially disastrous consequences.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

Was this one of the most important meeting of the year in hindsight. Or the start of end of war that is not on Ukraine’s and EU’s terms. After Wed call with Trump, news reported Trump moving closer towards EU position. After the meeting with Putin, he is said to have moved closer to Putin’s position. It is interesting to see how much sway the USA has to bring end to this conflict. EU leaders not engaging directly with Russia on what they consider is most critical security issue facing Europe is giving Trump a lot of leverage I think.
 

Too long but very good realistic analysis. Early in the video explains the difference and motivations for ceasefire and peace agreement.
 
A lot of thanks and praises to Trump today at the meeting with EU and Zelensky. Everyone trying to keep Trump in good humor.
 
www.theguardian.com

There's a word for the EU's inaction over Gaza: racism | Shada Islam

Europe frames the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza as a humanitarian crisis rather than a deliberate political choice. There will be a moral reckoning, says Shada Islam, a commentator on EU affairs
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

EU double standards when comparing Ukraine and Gaza is something everyone has noticed. One reason why EU won’t much traction for its anti-Russia stance beyond the western block (EU+5 eyes+Japan+S Korea).

Geopolitics is complex and not based on any moralities.
 
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