The Polls

[MamboJazz]

EU leaders race to save Ukraine funding deal as Kyiv’s cash runs low

‘Future of Europe’ at stake with Von der Leyen and Merz desperate to persuade Belgian PM to allow use of frozen Russian assets

www.theguardian.com

I don’t understand why Merz is so hell bent on spending his political capital to fund Ukraine. Do plurality of Germans agree with him. If he is really so serious why doesn’t Germany foot the bill. Or at least bigger part of it.

Merz is from the conservative party which always had the image of focusing on stable finances and trade, but is impressingly doing all he can in a suicidal way to lose popularity:

The Guardian view on Germany under Merz: Europe’s powerhouse is still struggling | Editorial

Editorial: Donald Trump’s trade wars and Chinese competition constitute formidable headwinds. But old economic orthodoxies are not the answer

www.theguardian.com

How would anything that happens in Ukraine makes Europe safer. That is one argument I can’t understand and no one in the west questions it. Whether Ukraine wins or loses, how would it change anything in Europe. I don’t think Russians are going to instigate a war with NATO. Putin says he has no interest in fight a war with Europe.

Here we always fall back into the discussion "Putin is Hitler, he won't stop conquering". If you believe that you are welcome to understand EU politicians. If you don't believe that you are welcome to think they are obsessed.

Especially german politicians were prone to obsessions in the past. Before WW I they felt trapped between France and Russia and developed the military Schlieffen plan "for defense" (because the other countries were evil). After the war none found himself guilty. Before WW II they believed in a jewish world conspiracy they had to defend against, after the war all pleaded "not guilty" at the Nuremberg trials. I don't have trust in german politicians not falling into weird obsessions again.

 

[Offbeat]

Merz is from the conservative party which always had the image of focusing on stable finances and trade, but is impressingly doing all he can in a suicidal way to lose popularity:

That’s my point. Why is using up so much of his political capital for something that will bite him big time back home.

I don’t think he is doing Germany any good. If Germany weakens, EU weakens.

I was reading about how the Poles don’t like Germans. All the Eastern European states joined EU after it was well established. Germany has always been driving engine of EU economy. The Eastern Europeans benefitted a lot from EU and yet somehow are antagonistic to Germany.

It seems like only thing hiding the differences with EU members is hate towards Putin and Russia.

Here we always fall back into the discussion "Putin is Hitler, he won't stop conquering". If you believe that you are welcome to understand EU politicians. If you don't believe that you are welcome to think they are obsessed.

I think they have become obsessed over the last year. It is mystifying why they are so obsessed. I still can’t at pure logic level understand how what happens in Ukraine affects them or their security. Smaller Baltic states definitely have something to worry. Putin could easily march into them.

 

[bailar y tocar]

I was reading about how the Poles don’t like Germans.

Which Poles don't like which Germans?
Poles love working in Germany. Better pay, labor laws are followed and Poles are treated much better than people of color (from the middle east, south asia, africa) or with strange accents.

Perhaps you are referring to some govt officials hating on other govt officials? Possible doing it for electioneering/ propaganda reasons? Sort of like Republicans in the US hating on Mexicans even though so much of the US economy depends on Mexico.

 

[MamboJazz]

I was reading about how the Poles don’t like Germans.

Not really, the poles mainly hate the russians. After the 5 years of nazi occupation you would expect them to hate germans, but the soviets stayed ten times longer afterwards (nearly 50 years) and that is much more remembered.

The germans are not liked in any neighboring country, first because we are the bigger brother and second germans often behave rude and much less polite as other people. But nothing compares to the polish hate towards the russians.

The russians should ask themselves self-critically why they are disliked so much in many eastern european countries. Occupation is not necessarily a reason for hate. My german area was part of Austria in 18th century and historic documents report people liked it because the austrians had a moderate tax system and were a sympathic ruler.

 

[bailar y tocar]

The russians should ask themselves self-critically why they are disliked so much in many eastern european countries.

My german area was part of Austria in 18th century and historic documents report people liked it because the austrians had a moderate tax system and were a sympathic ruler.

After 1989 when Czechoslovakia/ Czech Republic became capitalist, many of the "investors" who got a hold of the real estate for very cheap were Russian mafia bosses. They used Russian mafia boss methods to get rid of renters with protected rents so they could rent to newcomers for a lot of money. This also happened in some industries. Needless to say people hoped that German companies would come in and take over which they did in some cases.

Similar situation in the Rhineland which had been occupied by France on several occasions. The French were actually way more popular than the Prussians. The Cologne carnival traces its origin back to the time when the Prussians took over from the French and freedom was lost.

To this day France is very popular among most Germans in the western half of the country and Germany is very popular among many French people.

That said they still make jokes about each other but so do Swedes and Danes and they like each other anyway.

 

[MamboJazz]

To this day France is very popular among most Germans in the western half of the country

Hm, I don't know. Southern France is a popular summer holiday destination (next mediterranean coast to be reached by car), but I'm living next to the border and I never met a local from here who could speak french - they mostly dislike going across the border and France is more regarded as a higher crime area (which is a bit true but also exaggerated).

Germany is very popular among many French people.

Fortunately it has changed towards better, the first decades after the war that was different, of course.

What is completely unthinkable nowadays is the fact that germans and french regarded each other as arch-enemies until WW II.

 

[Offbeat]

Trump’s new doctrine confirms it. Ready or not, Europe is on its own | Georg Riekeles and Varg Folkman

We can move from defensive crouch to position of strength but only if we use the economic cards we have against US coercion, say Georg Riekeles and Varg Folkman of the European Policy Centre

www.theguardian.com

I don’t understand why Europe is so much dependent on its security for a country that is half way across the earth.

Europeans are being way too subservient to the USA despite as a block having equivalent GDP, technology and two nuclear powers (Britain and France).

No other country or set of countries expect a third country to provide them security the way Europe does.

It is said that Europe lacks the air power, intelligence, and air defenses that only USA can provide. If that is the case it makes more sense for Europe to buy time by reaching a deal with Russia. Rather than prolonging the conflict and projecting Russia will attack Europe. Europe can only deal with Russia when there is sensible leadership at helm.

Trump keeps changing who he blames. Now he is blaming Zelensky for delaying the peace deal. Tomorrow it might be Putin again.

I keep hearing about Putin’s 180 degrees turn again and again in interviewed with the experts. Putin when he first became president wanted to join NATO and was very pro European. Now he is exact opposite. It indicated failure on part of Europe and USA to take him seriously back in his first term.

 

[bailar y tocar]

It is said that Europe lacks the air power, intelligence, and air defenses that only USA can provide.

If one adds up all of the defense contractors and all of the potential defense contractors if European nations spent as much as the US, Russia or China does, they would have more than enough. In technology the Europeans are equivalent to the US and China and way ahead of Russia. They are lacking the sheer volume of weapons.

Fundamentally, Europeans on balance do not agree with the amount of defense spending needed to be independent. They would have to cut state provided pension, education, healthcare benefits to levels comparable to the US, China, Russia and India. People are not willing to go there. Quality of life is so much higher in most parts of Europe in part because their defense spending is so low.

If European nations wanted to buy time, the approach would not be to appease Russia but rather to re-group vis a vis China. China is game for anything that increases China's importance at the expense of the US. As of today at this moment, that is NOT the EU strategy at all.

 

[bailar y tocar]

In technology the Europeans are equivalent to the US and China and way ahead of Russia. They are lacking the sheer volume of weapons.

Sidenote: Ukraine has actually offered to train other European armies in how to conduct modern drone warfare. European powers have not responded publicly to the offer. If they are doing it, it is top secret and will likely remain top secret.

Fwiw, Ukraine's drone defense exacts a large multiple ratio of casualties on Russia. It is somewhere in the 10:1 to 50:1. That is still not good enough though because Russia has way more cannon fodder* than Ukraine has soldiers in total.

*Russian people are expendable for Russian leaders.

 

[Smejmoon]

a deal with Russia.

Do you have some historical examples on successful deal with Russia?

 

[Offbeat]

If one adds up all of the defense contractors and all of the potential defense contractors if European nations spent as much as the US, Russia or China does, they would have more than enough. In technology the Europeans are equivalent to the US and China and way ahead of Russia. They are lacking the sheer volume of weapons.

Fundamentally, Europeans on balance do not agree with the amount of defense spending needed to be independent. They would have to cut state provided pension, education, healthcare benefits to levels comparable to the US, China, Russia and India. People are not willing to go there. Quality of life is so much higher in most parts of Europe in part because their defense spending is so low.

If European nations wanted to buy time, the approach would not be to appease Russia but rather to re-group vis a vis China. China is game for anything that increases China's importance at the expense of the US. As of today at this moment, that is NOT the EU strategy at all.

European leaders walk tightrope between backing Ukraine and keeping US on board

Europe's leaders are trying to avoid alienating Donald Trump while fighting for Ukrainian sovereignty and future continental stability.

www.bbc.com

This is a good explanation of why EU is dependent on the USA.

Can’t EU have sufficient deterrent against Russia within existing budgets. They have the technology and the equipment. USA is primarily providing air support and intelligence. You do not have to increase the budget by a lot to provide intelligence. Same with air refueling and other support.

 

[bailar y tocar]

Can’t EU have sufficient deterrent against Russia within existing budgets. They have the technology and the equipment. USA is primarily providing air support and intelligence. You do not have to increase the budget by a lot to provide intelligence. Same with air refueling and other support.

You are raising the key point, the elephant in the room. If Europe acted as one, they could easily fit everything into each and all budgets. There are many examples of useless military spending in individual countries. Why does Greece have one of the largest tank/artillery forces? Are they going to start a land war with Turkey, a fellow NATO country? Greece clearly should have a large and capable Navy. The only countries that have a sensible defense strategy and spending and equipment that matches their needs are Sweden and Finland. Whoa. They just joined NATO. Clearly they knew what to do before they joined. Maybe other NATO countries should ask them for advice (but quietly so as not to appear to be the idiots they actually are).

Also, if Europeans (not just the EU) acted too coordinated, it could trigger the Americans to pull out completely. As you posted, it is a tightrope.

 

[bailar y tocar]

In technology the Europeans are equivalent to the US

I have been reading many posts about Canada's impending fighter plane decision. They have narrowed it down to the F-35 and Sweden's Gripen (some number#). The argument for the Gripen are very compelling and it would truly piss off the US if Canada went that way.

If Canada's strategy was to engage in an attack war, taking out enemy targets in enemy territory, the F-35 is far superior. But if Canada's strategy is pure defense from remote landing strips hidden in the tundra, the Gripen is far superior.

Russia's war on Ukraine is proof that the Gripen approach would be superior for a defensive posture in Europe as well.

 

[Offbeat]

The Guardian view on Trump and Europe: more an abusive relationship than an alliance | Editorial

Editorial: The White House is aggressively seeking to weaken and dominate the United States’ traditional allies. European leaders must learn to fight back.

www.theguardian.com

A lot of commentary in the press today after Trump’s interview to Politico. All publicans are analyzing how Trump is pushing EU aside. Among major thrust is that the flattery and bending backwards by leaders of Uk, Framne, Germany, and EU to accommodate Trump is not working.

 

[salsim]

1. Delivering peace and stability to the world
2. Donald Trump received the first Peace Prize awarded by FIFA

 

[salsim]

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, has safely reached Oslo but will not attend the awards ceremony. The Nobel Institute confirmed her daughter will accept the prize on her behalf, and delivered Machado’s prepared speech

 

[Offbeat]

Tourists from 42 countries will have to submit 5 years of social media history to enter U.S. under Trump plan

The Trump administration is proposing to ask visitors from countries with visa-free travel to the U.S. to submit five years of their social media history before they can enter.

www.cbsnews.com

Why would anyone in their right mind want to visit the USA while this guy is the president. Makes absolutely no sense.

Looks like they only want MAGA looking like and MAGA thinking likes to visit the country.

I didn’t know there was a MAGA look. But the day before on the NPR there was a segment discussing what a MAGA look is for men and women.

 

[Offbeat]

POLITICO Pro

pro.politico.eu

In my limited knowledge of European history, Poland is one country that has been pushed around by its more powerful neighbors. Since 17th century it has been been a victim of surrounding greater powers.

After the end of cold power, Poland became biggest USA ally in Europe. I think poles loved Americans more than other way round. Polish antipathy towards Russia is completely understandable and one can sympathize with that.

I have always thought Poland feels such antipathy towards Russia that they feel embolden to poke the bear while sitting on shoulders of a giant (the USA). Before Ukrainian crisis too Poland has anti-Russian anger that showed in their statements. I think joining NATO, made Poland feel more secure against it powerful neighbour.

If USA withdraws from wanting to antagonize Russia and support to Europe is weakened, it leaves states like Poland vulnerable. Best to maintain some some pragmatic when you are confronting a far powerful adversary as a neighbour.

As they say, you can’t fight the geography. You can’t change your neighbourhood.

 

[MamboJazz]

In my limited knowledge of European history, Poland is one country that has been pushed around by its more powerful neighbors. Since 17th century it has been been a victim of surrounding greater powers.

Poland with 37 mio. inhabitants is one of the bigger nations in europe, but they had the badluck to find themselves between even bigger nations and were deleted from the map longtime. The polish psyche nowadays is not an easy one.

Now they are building fences and trenches at the border with Belarus and want to have the biggest army in europe. I wouldn't be surprised to find all 37 mio. poles with arms waiting day and night behind that border.

 

[Offbeat]

POLITICO Pro

www.politico.eu

It would be poetic justice, but using frozen assets would indeed undermine confidence. European leaders are really getting desperate. Threatening to treat Belgium like Hungary isn’t good optics.