The Polls
- Thread starter salsim
- Start date
If you look at the geography of Hormuz and its narrowest point, you can see how difficult it is to open it up for shipping under military protection. Even a layman can easily understand the challenge. News reports keep talking about 7 islands in Hormuz that Iran can use to attack shipping lanes. Assuming all the 7 islands are captured and Iranian presence neutralized, it still leaves the long coast open. If Iran can attack US bases across the straits with drones, imagine what it can do to oil tankers. It has many options from airborne and sea borne drones, small boats, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, powerful artillery guns, torpedos, etc. You only have to look at how Ukraine has immobilized the powerful Baltic naval fleet of Russians. Hormuz is a lot easier. Forget protecting the oil tankers, the naval ships close to straits will themselves be in grave danger. Ships will require both offensive and defensive weapons. When Iran can send swarm of drones, a ship will exhaust its interception capability quickly. Landing and invading coastal area is not going to remove the danger either.
We saw how Houthis had stopped shipping in the Red Sea last year.
Insurance is critical for shipping to operate. No private Insurance company is going to provide it in active war zone. If US has failed to come up with insurance that Trump promised.
Lastly I don’t know how many civilian crew will be willing to pilot the oil tankers. If they are replaced by naval crew, it won’t remove the risk.
Lass year Europeans spend enormous time appeasing Trump and bending backwards. Giving impression to everyone, the length to which they were willing to compromise their values and accommodate the irrational demands. No wonder Trump started expecting them to step up in Middle East.
Once you start not to oppose a bully, you are ceding a lot of ground. EU can be a superpower and be as powerful as USA. It doesn’t have the level of hard power today. But it still has more than Russia or China. Financially Europe can hurt USA. USA actions are already hurting Europe.
the gamification of war by the U.S. and Iran....in March, the White House social media accounts released a series of videos promoting U.S. military strikes in Iran with videos that splice real combat footage with video game elements and pop culture clips....also, in late March, the Iranian state media and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released several AI-generated videos as a response to Trump's "war game" style social media posts....these videos have faced significant backlash for trivializing a real-life conflict and the loss of human life
1. a White House video about the air strikes on Iran
2. Iran releases a hypothetical scenario video, titled 'Welcome to Hell', about a U.S.-Israel invasion
1. a White House video about the air strikes on Iran
2. Iran releases a hypothetical scenario video, titled 'Welcome to Hell', about a U.S.-Israel invasion
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Yes, that's really a horrible thing and shows how minds can deteriorate after decades of consuming mediocre unrealistic war movies. It always works with demonization of the others.
The Vietnam deja-vu is supported by even including US moon flights at the same time, like a bad joke. Only missing the president's impeachment, which is possible on the horizon.
As leader of the US military you can easily get lost in omnipotence fantasies, that's exactly what you have to refrain from, and the Trump administration failed here. I don't read anymore what Trump says, his random sentences have no meaning anymore. He has regressed into a child overwhelmed by reality, and outside the US hardly anyone takes him serious anymore. Recently his niece said in an interview that's actually what his life was always doomed to end like: in the ultimate humiliation of failing hard, the failing he always wanted to avoid, hitting on him now intensely. Unfortunately we sit with him in this boat.
bailar y tocar
Son Montuno
The strait of Hormuz is not an issue, it is not closed. Ships that are not unfriendly to Iran can pass. Some have to pay a toll. Others, e.g. flagged to China, Pakistan and other Iran friendly countries don't even have to pay the toll.
That is still a trickle, even to friendly countries.
The spot price of crude yesterday was $144. Far more than the oil futures. A significant capacity of Qatar’s gas production is offline and will take time to repair. Iran is not yet hitting the gulf oil and gas infrastructure as hard as it can.
Straight of Hormuz has increased the risk and introduced instability. Which is as good as being closed.
In his first administration there were people who tried to retrain him and his worth instinct. In this administration he is surrounded by yes-men loyalists and republicans party that refuses to check him. Though in private they all think he is mad.
This shows one of the biggest weakness of electoral democracies. Being beholden to those who can finance the election and those that can influence their electoral prospects.
Iran mantains a blockade of the strait and prohibits passage for vessels linked to unfrendly nations as the U.S, Israel, and their allies....who is not an ally of the United States in Europe and around the world?...U.S. allies like Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain have no practical maritime alternative and rely on the strait for nearly all their energy exports, Gulf states depend on the strait for 80% of their food imports, i guess the strait is an issue for them....before the start of the war the average traffic throught the strait was an average of 150 vessels per day, now with the Iranian blockade plummeted to approximately 20 a day....no doubt, the strait of Hormuz is an issue, take care all
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bailar y tocar
Son Montuno
A French ship passed today. Any ship that is not destined for the US or Israel can pass if they pay a toll.
Only Chinese Yuan and a cryptocurrency are accepted.
The ships are probably not flagged for any of these countries. Most commercial shipping is registered in places like Liberia, Nauru etc. It is the destination and the owner of the cargo that matters.
France demonstrated that there is no issue if one is not US nor Israeli and is willing to pay the toll via a Chinese bank.
Also, it is not a blockade. It is a threat towards ships whose cargo is destined for the US or Israel. Ships that can prove that they are headed to Asia or France or wherever can pass. Are they nervous about doing that? Of course. A supertanker can carry around 350,000 barrels of oil which is worth around 40 million USD equivalent. That is a lot of value to put at risk and commercial shipping companies are extremely conservative. If the insurance company denies coverage, the shipping company has to pay any damages or losses out of their own funds.
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1derpalm
Son Montuno
This world is a GD joke...
Indeed, but it is the first one, maybe others will follow. I guess the crew on the ship was a bit nervous, hoping no overzealous iranian officer who missed the correct information starts a missile.
"Blockade" is misleading as there are neither iranian ships nor sea mines in the strait, but you need a permit only "friendly" nations get, and then have the nerves to pass through hoping no iranian soldiers have wrong information.
"The Malta-flagged container ship owned by French company CMA CGM crossed the strait, media organisation BFM TV - which is owned by the shipping company - confirmed on Friday. CMA CGM declined to comment. It is the first ship owned by a major Western European firm to go through the strait since the conflict began, shipping analysts Kpler confirmed."
French-owned ship passes through Strait of Hormuz
It appears to be the first ship owned by a major European firm to go through the strait since the conflict began.
www.bbc.com
the Malta-flagged container ship owned by a French company became the first vessel with Western European ties to successfully transit the strait since the war began, this transit occurred after French President Emmanuel Macron publicly advocated for a diplomatic solution to reopen the waterway, explicitly rejecting the use of military force, while Iran maintains a selective blockade it has transitioned to a permission-based system for certain nations....China is the primary destination for Iranian oil exports, approximately 90%, thats why the requirement to pay the toll via a Chinese bank, besides the sanctions that restrict the use of the dollar, large tankers have reported paying around 14 million yuans, equivalent to about 2 million dollars, to pass through the strait....Iran has also attacked ships whose cargo is not destined for the U.S. or Israel, ships headed to Europe and Asia, according to reports, the ships tried to avoid the Toll and under-estimated the Iranian authorities in the Strait of Hormuz, lets see how all plays out, obviously the war has changed maritime transit in that oil and gas rich region, the Persian Gulf
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bailar y tocar
Son Montuno
Indeed, but it is the first one, maybe others will follow. I guess the crew on the ship was a bit nervous, hoping no overzealous iranian officer who missed the correct information starts a missile.
"Blockade" is misleading as there are neither iranian ships nor sea mines in the strait, but you need a permit only "friendly" nations get, and then have the nerves to pass through hoping no iranian soldiers have wrong information.
"The Malta-flagged container ship owned by French company CMA CGM crossed the strait, media organisation BFM TV - which is owned by the shipping company - confirmed on Friday. CMA CGM declined to comment. It is the first ship owned by a major Western European firm to go through the strait since the conflict began, shipping analysts Kpler confirmed."
French-owned ship passes through Strait of Hormuz
It appears to be the first ship owned by a major European firm to go through the strait since the conflict began.
The ship passed through at about the same time that French President Macron barred US military flights that were not performing treaty obligations from French airspace.
This was a diplomatic quid pro quo between Iran and France. "France: we ban US planes. Iran: we let your ships through".
Significant fact: Macron made the first move as he usually does.
