The Polls

Operation Epic Fury, a large-scale military campaign launched by the United States and Israel, with the stated goals of dismantling Iran's missile capabilities, nuclear program, and neutralizing its naval presence....more than 30 Iranian ships have been reported sunk as of March 5, this includes the Iris Dena, a frigate torpidoed by a U.S. submarine in the Indian Ocean....Defense Secretary Hegseth and General Dan Caine provided a new update on Operation Epic Furry....take care all

1. Pentagon gives Iran war update
2. How the US and Israel strike Iran


 
Offbeat said:
Israel had perfect intelligence to take out the Iranian leadership, therefore they acted on it.
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Yes, and this a endless cycle. Since decades they kill high-ranked-leaders, which get replaced by new leaders. "Israel said that whoever became the next supreme leader would be a potential target." Shiits have a martyr religion, so they find always new leaders who agree to be targets.

Sicilian mafia bosses were harder to trace, already in 90s they never used mobiles, lived incognito as decent farmers and only used hand written notes ("pizzini") for communication. But they also didn't aspire martyrdom.

www.theguardian.com

Israel strikes Tehran and Beirut as Iran vows ‘complete destruction’ in region

Rapidly escalating war enters fifth day and spreads as far as Indian Ocean with sinking of Iranian vessel off Sri Lanka
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
trumpy has about a 2 week attention span before he moves onto his next drama, lets see him try to weasle out of this over the next week or so.

I really cant see any "winning" here for any normal sane people

the only people I see winning right now are psycopaths who want endless killing/war :D
 
MamboJazz said:
Yes, and this a endless cycle. Since decades they kill high-ranked-leaders, which get replaced by new leaders. "Israel said that whoever became the next supreme leader would be a potential target." Shiits have a martyr religion, so they find always new leaders who agree to be targets.

Sicilian mafia bosses were harder to trace, already in 90s they never used mobiles, lived incognito as decent farmers and only used hand written notes ("pizzini") for communication. But they also didn't aspire martyrdom.
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Israeli intelligence successfully infiltrated nearly all of Tehran's traffic camera network for years as part of a massive cyber-surveillance operation, which allowed Israel to build a comprehensive "pattern of life" for Iranian leadership, which ultimately facilitated the political execution of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a joint U.S.-Israel airstrike....the CIA and Israeli intelligence worked in lockstep to locate and track Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for months leading up to the operation codenamed "Epic Fury" by the United States and "Roaring Lion" by Israel, resulted in the death of Khamenei and several top military leaders, including the Minister of Defence and the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps....take care all
 
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salsim said:
Israeli intelligence successfully infiltrated nearly all of Tehran's traffic camera network for years as part of a massive cyber-surveillance operation, which allowed Israel to build a comprehensive "pattern of life" for Iranian leadership, which ultimately facilitated the political execution of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a joint U.S.-Israel airstrike
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Time will prove if it was a good move to kill the 86-year-old head of a religion and make him a martyr. Some even muse if the old man was aware and agreed with it. Even decades later some fanatics may become assassins (like it happend to Salman Rushdie 33 years after his condemnation).

The interesting thing is nowadays also the leaders may be killed whereever they are and however they hide. Hitler and Stalin couldn't harm each other back then. Now everybody can be drone killed. In some way it is a democratization of war. Do Putin and Xi Jinping think of it when they step out on a balcony? Fortunately no politicians are interested in me so I can still enjoy my beer on the balcony.
 
I read that they had a plan with Israel at the helm to topple a few different countries for Israeli expansion. Somalia was one. As well. Which would make sense base on his somali comments.
 
1derpalm said:
I read that they had a plan with Israel at the helm to topple a few different countries for Israeli expansion. Somalia was one. As well. Which would make sense base on his somali comments.
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Israel is the only country that recognizes Somaliland, a strip of land of Somalia that juts out into the Red Sea. Israel wants to place operations there so they can attack the Huthis in Yemen more easily.

Interesting sidenote. I was talking to a co-worker back in the day before I retired maybe around 2010 or so. This friend had been camping somewhere and met up with some Norwegian guy and they sat around and had a beer or two. Norwegian guy proceeds to tell this story when he was hiking in Yemen (!!). I guess it was before the official govt was overthrown. So Norwegian guy walks up a mountain and there is another guy camping there. Other guy appears to have all kinds of electronic and transmitter equipment. Turns out he was Israeli, a forward lookout who might have been calling in bombing runs (they did not have many drones back then). So Norwegian guy and Israeli operative hang out for awhile - must have been a quiet night. Next morning Norwegian guy moves on and Israeli guy stays behind - possibly calling in hits on targets.
 
MamboJazz said:
Sicilian mafia bosses were harder to trace, already in 90s they never used mobiles, lived incognito as decent farmers and only used hand written notes ("pizzini") for communication. But they also didn't aspire martyrdom.
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Yup. El Mencho, the leader of the Jalisco cartel did just that as well. No phones. No electronics. Only messengers and written notes. It took the Mexican govt more than 10 years to finally get him. They achieved this because they figured out that a woman who did use electronic media and devices was his girlfriend. Once they knew that it was easy to track him down when she went to visit him.
They came close a few times before that but due to corruption in the Mexican police and military, he was tipped off just in time.
 
Offbeat said:
The Middle East is already asking Ukraine for cheaper intercepted drones. They are right now using expensive air defense missiles to counter cheaper drones sent by Iran. That is asymmetrical cost in warfare. It is easier and inexpensive to send a swarm of cheap drones, which can also include decoy drones.

Hypersonic cruise missiles are almost impossible to intercept. They are different than hypersonic ballistic missiles which the air defenses are intercepting. Though militarily very weak against USA and Israel, Iran does have advantage of launching drones that can target USA ships and Gulf countries. It has harder time targeting Israel further away with drones.
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Ukraine is fighting the war of today. Based on numbers and capabilities, Ukraine should have been defeated a long time ago.

Others may learn from Ukraine or suffer the consequences. Iran has not learned anything. They have stored most of their missiles and drones in large underground bases which are fairly easy to find with good satellite images. Ukraine does not do that. Ukraine's bases have been abandoned as they would be targets for Russian drones and missiles.
 
salsim said:
Israeli intelligence successfully infiltrated nearly all of Tehran's traffic camera network for years as part of a massive cyber-surveillance operation, which allowed Israel to build a comprehensive "pattern of life" for Iranian leadership,
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They created that for the bodyguards of Khamenei. By taking the movements of bodyguards they could infer whom they were going to protect. What time they started the duty and when they ended. The traffic camera surveillance was useful to follow these bodyguards to pin down where the leadership was. Israel also knew which person was assigned to guard the supreme leader. The pattern took years of surveillance to determine.

salsim said:
which ultimately facilitated the political execution of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a joint U.S.-Israel airstrike....the CIA and Israeli intelligence worked in lockstep to locate and track Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for months
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While Israel had signal intelligence, CIA had human intelligence. Sigint and humanint are both crucial. On the fateful day both sigint and humanint confirmed where Khamenei was located. Israel didn’t waste anytime to take him out. Added bonus was top leadership who were at the meeting with him. That strike almost killed most of the top rung leadership of the regime.


 
There's big outrage within the MAGA movement about the Iran war because Trump broke his campaign promises. It will even drag down Vance and Rubio if they thought about running for president in 2028. Only hope for all would be a quick end of the war with Iran turning into a nice democracy, which is unlikely.

But even then new enemies are visible on the map from the viewpoint of some israelian politicians: Turkey (Nato!) seems next candidate, maybe even forming an islamic axis with Saudi-Arabia or Katar (rich!) and Pakistan (nuclear weapons!). This still seems a bit constructed, but if the old theory is true that states always need enemies then this indeed could make a good new enemy.

BBC Monitoring – Essential Media Insight

BBC Monitoring reports and analyses news from media around the world. Access to local sources and unrivalled understanding of the world's media mean our subscribers are uniquely well-informed about developments that matter to them.
monitoring.bbc.co.uk monitoring.bbc.co.uk
 
Offbeat said:
By then it will be Cuba!!
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And for all the fools that hthink he is overthrowing the dictators, he has stated that he doesn't care if the leader 9f Iran is a democratic one or a religious leader, as long as they do business with him.
Also, he had stated that if the current regime answers his demands (returning property to ExxonMobil, etc) that the CURRENT REGIME will he allowed to stay in power.
 
salsim said:
Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei the new Supreme Leader

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The US/Israeli forces killed his father, wife and son altogether a week ago, in an undeclared attack during negotiations - I guess he will not be very open for negotiations. Btw if he also gets killed, he has two clerical brothers.
 
MamboJazz said:
The US/Israeli forces killed his father, wife and son altogether a week ago, in an undeclared attack during negotiations - I guess he will not be very open for negotiations. Btw if he also gets killed, he has two clerical brothers.
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It goes against the grain of hereditary politics which is at the core of Iranian revolution and the clerical regime. His own father was not in favour of him as a successor, who thought he wasn’t qualified enough.

Some reports before the decision portrayed him as less rigid and more compromising, while the other reports call him hard right wing, worse than his father.

While Iran can cause a lot of pain (look at the oil prices) in the region in case of prolonged war, it was already a very weak militarily. After the current war, it had weakened further. A lot of its hard power is getting destroyed. Reducing the room left for any new leader to maneuver for next few years. Nothing can change that reality no matter how extreme a new leader is. Iran is probably going to lose possession of all 450Kgs of enriched uranium and may not be able to process uranium due to destroyed infrastructure after this war ends. It is basically Iranian regime being left defanged, even if they retain the power.

My guess is that Israel is already trying to get rid of him.
 
Iranian state television delivered what it says is a written message from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei....he is believed to have been wounded on the first day of the war

 
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www.theguardian.com

US responsible for deadly missile strike on Iran school, preliminary inquiry says

Strike that killed at least 175 people, most of them children, reportedly the result of a targeting mistake by US military planners
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

"the investigation has concluded that the strike on 28 February on the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary
school building was the result of
a targeting mistake by the US military planners"


assuming their goal was to win the hearts and minds of the iranian people/come to their rescue.
(assuming this really was their goal, wink wink) not the kind of mistake you want to be making.

I mean just imagine if that was the other way around?

the school is on google maps (labelled as a school), has its own website.
even chat gpt would have told them it was a school

some people claim that these bombings are a result of using AI to generate targets.
but clearly AI wouldnt have done that, it would have known it was a school.
you would still need a human to disregard what they AI was telling them.

it was a precision (double tap) strike, meaning a human had to dial in the coordinates and other humans had to sign off on it.
so, lets see if they are willing to take accountability.

as for trumps handling of it... wow.. making up stories on the spot, showing no spine, and more over, no compassion for the victims.
i cant see how he can survive this politically, he has completely betrayed his base with this war
 
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