Covid dance poll

A great salsa venue opened near you, no masks no social distancing required, would you go?


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Even if the vaccines are safe, many other things can go wrong. I think a lot of people are expecting a return almost to normal but it seems like a best-case scenario, while in reality many different scenarios are possible and we can't predict which ones are more likely to happen.

Indeed. Here is an example:


I first heard from a friend who is physician at Stanford that the medical residents there staged a walkout to protest not being priorities for vaccine. All over USA and locally the vaccination started on Monday.

As anyone familiar with hospitals know that the medical residents (who are doctors in training) form backbone of physician numbers and presence in the hospitals. They are most likely to be the ones delivering daily care and making decisions about the patients.

I can’t life of me figure out how could stanford get algorithm so wrong. Programmers are used to dealing with multiple variables (inputs and conditional rules) for solving such problems. Okay they got it wrong. But didn’t they test using the available list and check who was getting left out. The vaccine was approved Friday night. It was arrived and Monday. Assuming they only had 2 days, there was enough time to get the initial allocation right. In reality they should have this allocation algorithm ready and tested weeks before. It is not very hard and they still failed.

P.S. - Salsaforum site was down for about ten minutes! Couldn’t post my reply.
 
I can’t life of me figure out how could stanford get algorithm so wrong. Programmers are used to dealing with multiple variables (inputs and conditional rules) for solving such problems. Okay they got it wrong. But didn’t they test using the available list and check who was getting left out. The vaccine was approved Friday night. It was arrived and Monday. Assuming they only had 2 days, there was enough time to get the initial allocation right. In reality they should have this allocation algorithm ready and tested weeks before. It is not very hard and they still failed.
A major administration failure is the short answer, coupled with incompetence. Algorithms are only as good as the people writing them, and even then, results should be reviewed constantly to catch any programming issues, which no one seems to have done. I'd go so far as to say that this is a firing offence - they had the time and they already know (presumably) who the front line staff are.
 
A major administration failure is the short answer, coupled with incompetence. Algorithms are only as good as the people writing them, and even then, results should be reviewed constantly to catch any programming issues, which no one seems to have done. I'd go so far as to say that this is a firing offence - they had the time and they already know (presumably) who the front line staff are.

The sheer competence is mind-blowing. I agree it is a firing offense and I really want to know who was in the decision making chain and why it took them 3 days to figure out. Anhigh school kid could have coded a better algorithm than an institution that has probably won one of the highest number of nobel prize!

This is like enemy has invaded in massive numbers. You send soldiers to face the enemy fire and fight back. But instead of sending bullets to them, the bullets are sent to the generals directing the war back in headquarters.
 
True but at the same time you do have to incentivize good habits/behavior and add cost to those indulging in risk. Otherwise it will also make insurance both superfluous and expensive.

It is an interesting question. How do you account for a group that knowingly indulges in risky behavior that can increase the costs for the other group that doesn’t in the insurance pool.
You average it out through the large number of insured people. There are enough other negative feedbacks for smoking that you don't have to have an additional incentive. The same goes for being fat, not doing sports, etc. Also, it is unclear whether the pension systems in the west could take all people stopping smoking :-)
 
He also signed a toothless executive order about the vaccines to first supplied to USA. Which is totally unenforceable because Pfizer has contracts with other countries. It has three manufacturing plants for the vaccine, two of which are in Europe. In the USA govt cannot seize private property which Trump will have to do to force Pfizer.
I don't think they are toothless. Any contract is useless if you can't deliver. If e.g. there are base materials that are needed for the vaccine that are only available in the US then preventing their export on grounds of national security would render plants outside of the US meaningless. This would be one of the few times the national security would actually be justifiable. And I don't know why you think the US government cannot seize private property. Just do a 5min duckduckgo search.
The only reason it may be toothless is because he's a lame duck president.
 
The governments and the experts really need to step up. They are doing a very bad job in informing and convincing people. There is so much misinformation and it's being shared everywhere. I see it everyday on Facebook, all sort of pseudo science and conspiracy theories. There have to be huge campaigns, experts answering every possible concern, high-profile people speaking up - scientists, celebrities, politicians. And this has to happen right now. All I see is the opposite - tired repetitions of a few boring facts, many politicians not speaking up or even further spreading misinformation. This is not going to convince anybody.
There is a simple elegant solution. Quit facebook. If there are two companies that should go broke, be destroyed (not broken up but destroyed and the first 3 levels of management put into jail) then it's facebook and twitter.
 
There is already a large order placed through COVAX by GAVI for AstraZeneca.

I am sure Germany is not going to use up its 200% orders.
I wouldn't be so sure about that. There will be a lot of waste, where maybe the cold chain was interrupted for 5min and a batch will be thrown away. In other countries they may say who cares about 5m but in Germany rules like that don't get broken easily. It is much easier to suspend basic rights in Germany than administrative regulations. Just look at the case numbers in Germany and see that every weekend there is a dip. That's of course because on the weekend Corona is less virulent.
I saw one comment somewhere that it's great that we (the western world) have a vaccine. But we failed distributing masks so why would we do so great now with the much harder task of distributing the vaccine?
 
I don't think they are toothless. Any contract is useless if you can't deliver. If e.g. there are base materials that are needed for the vaccine that are only available in the US then preventing their export on grounds of national security would render plants outside of the US meaningless. This would be one of the few times the national security would actually be justifiable. And I don't know why you think the US government cannot seize private property. Just do a 5min duckduckgo search.
The only reason it may be toothless is because he's a lame duck president.

Because any seizure of private property can be challenged in court, if at all actual statute under which it is is done is valid. If it is an invalid statute, the court will simply rule against the government. The court can provide injunctive relief to the private property owner till the case is settled depending on circumstances and the likelihood of who shall prevail. The bar to seize private property in the USA by govt is one of the highest in the world. Even under national security rational. Assuming it manages to cross all those hurdles, the govt still has to compensate Pfizer for the market value of the property.

Trump could prevent the supply of materials from the USA but then other countries can retaliate too. It is a global supply chain. If the USA had to rely only on vaccines manufactured in the USA with all the raw material and other things required to be procured internally, good luck with getting the vaccine quicker than signing a new agreement with Pfizer. It is a fact that Pfizer offered and pleaded with the USA govt to buy additional 100M doses in Sep and someone in the govt decided they wouldn't buy those extra 100M.

The executive order that President signed is indeed toothless and unenforceable. If it was signed with emergency powers (whatever they may be) and national security grounds, etc then may be it could be enforced. But not the way it has been issued.

There is a big difference between issuing an order under correct legal statutes and enforcing it, vs merely signing an executive order that can't be enforced. That is just the legal part of it. Another is the practical aspect. Can Pfizer produce all the vaccine doses required in its USA plant in a timely manner that order dictates? You can well assume that other governments can ban Pfizer from exporting vaccines from there to the USA. Then what? Does the USA bomb them with cruise missiles? :) Assuming it succeeds, how long would it take to get everything going again.

All that has to be weighed against doses that the USA is already going to get from other vaccine makers with whom it has signed agreements.

So when you do a trade-off between legal requirements, practical enforcement, and time-line required to deliver along with the cost-benefits- it all is totally toothless and grandstanding to show that he is doing something.

A president is a lame duck only in a political sense. Constitutionally and legally he has all the power to do what he is legal till Jan 20th, including pressing the nuclear button just because he feels like doing so and providing national security as a pretext. It will take disobedience and subjugation of the military commanders (who under the law will have to bear the consequences of defying the president's order as long as it was legal). The problem with the legal system is that it doesn't legislate morality. It was never designed to in the first place.
 
There is a simple elegant solution. Quit facebook. If there are two companies that should go broke, be destroyed (not broken up but destroyed and the first 3 levels of management put into jail) then it's facebook and twitter.

Totally agree that these two need to be shut down. They do more harm than good including having blood on their hands. Their business model is inherently in conflict with the greater good. Hypothetically they can take the right steps, lose a certain amount of the revenues they make and still be a vastly profitable company (at least in the case of FB).
 
I wouldn't be so sure about that. There will be a lot of waste, where maybe the cold chain was interrupted for 5min and a batch will be thrown away. In other countries they may say who cares about 5m but in Germany rules like that don't get broken easily. It is much easier to suspend basic rights in Germany than administrative regulations. Just look at the case numbers in Germany and see that every weekend there is a dip. That's of course because on the weekend Corona is less virulent.
I saw one comment somewhere that it's great that we (the western world) have a vaccine. But we failed distributing masks so why would we do so great now with the much harder task of distributing the vaccine?

Don't disagree. My point was that with Novax committed to supplying 2B doses and AstraZenca also pledging to supply at the low rates to developing and the poor world, GAVI, SEPI and WHO mechanisms are ensuring that everyone will get the vaccine. There are potentially other 5 or 6 vaccine candidates that will hit the market soon. It may not be the most equitable way to distribute. However, it isn't a great loss if only the USA and a few rich countries are able to start vaccinations two months earlier.

Assuming Germany would be able to vaccinate most of its population without any hitch, it wouldn't have many reasons to order additional doses. I think the graph indicated that Germany ordered 400% above its need. That is hedging by Germany when it was unknown which vaccines would work, when, and with how much efficacy.

It isn't like extra doses are being made and stored unused for months until they are ready to be purchased by Germany. The demand is too high that everything rolling off the manufacturing plant is to be sent somewhere for consumption.
 
Yes yes boys and girls, the magic pill will make all the bad things go away.

Lol you still have the audacity to pretend you know better and somehow others are the sheeple, not you, even after you claimed there was no excess mortality this year :rofl: Here's the thing: it is you who is being manipulated and will continue to be as long as you shy away from looking at the data and instead trust the conspiracy theorists that tell you what you want to hear. That's the sad irony of your pitiful comments.

Still waiting for your "I was wrong" response to the excess mortality data, or are you really that much of a coward & sheeple that you are incapable of admitting you were wrong even when presented with the exact data? Doesn't go well with your masculinity standards you know ;) (I expected that you have zero self-respect and will never be able to admit "my bad", but let's see, you still have a chance to redeem yourself, better late than never!)

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Lol you still have the audacity to pretend you know better and somehow others are the sheeple, not you, even after you claimed there was no excess mortality this year :rofl: Here's the thing: it is you who is being manipulated and will continue to be as long as you shy away from looking at the data and instead trust the conspiracy theorists that tell you what you want to hear. That's the sad irony of your pitiful comments.

Still waiting for your "I was wrong" response to the excess mortality data, or are you really that much of a coward & sheeple that you are incapable of admitting you were wrong even when presented with the exact data? Doesn't go well with your masculinity standards you know ;) (I expected that you have zero self-respect and will never be able to admit "my bad", but let's see, you still have a chance to redeem yourself, better late than never!)
me-YOW...
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Assuming Germany would be able to vaccinate most of its population without any hitch, it wouldn't have many reasons to order additional doses.
This is the assumption that I don't think will come true. In the end they will manage but without any hitch? Or without multiple big hitches? A big assumption not supported by many historical facts.
 
Because any seizure of private property can be challenged in court, if at all actual statute under which it is is done is valid. If it is an invalid statute, the court will simply rule against the government. The court can provide injunctive relief to the private property owner till the case is settled depending on circumstances and the likelihood of who shall prevail.
Yes it can be challenged. That does not make it toothless. It takes a while and in the end the second or 3rd version will pass muster in the courts. The republican strategy of packing the courts is working. They got some version of the muslim immigration ban passed.
And do you really thin Pfizer would fight that hard if the US payed more per unit than other countries? They would say "sorry, we would like to but we can't, force majeur". And usually the US pays more for medicine than any other country. Most of the times that is a bad thing, but this once it may be to the advantage of the US.

The bar to seize private property in the USA by govt is one of the highest in the world.
Dude really? REALLY? You're serious? In which alternate reality are you living? Did you do any research here? 5 min on your favorite search engine? Look for example for civil asset forfeiture. That has nothing to do with Pfizer of course, there it would be eminent domain. The theoretical bar may be high, but practically the US has probably the worst protections in the western world. And we are in an exceptional emergency, similar to the scope of a war where governments can do what they want.

Even under national security rational. Assuming it manages to cross all those hurdles, the govt still has to compensate Pfizer for the market value of the property.
Which doesn't make it toothless. And if the US government needs to spend 5min of its defense budget on this, does that make a difference? They may have to go as high as an hour or a day maybe? It would be the best spent defense budget money. Would it make a difference if they made Pfizer the richest company in the world? Is there a difference between 6 trillion and 7 trillion national debt?

Trump could prevent the supply of materials from the USA but then other countries can retaliate too.
Again, not toothless. And I doubt they would. Maybe China but Western Europe? Until they got their act together the pandemic is over.

The executive order that President signed is indeed toothless and unenforceable.
Repetition does not make this sentence correct.

If it was signed with emergency powers (whatever they may be) and national security grounds, etc then may be it could be enforced. But not the way it has been issued.
So if this one does not work it will be reworded.

There is a big difference between issuing an order under correct legal statutes and enforcing it, vs merely signing an executive order that can't be enforced. That is just the legal part of it. Another is the practical aspect. Can Pfizer produce all the vaccine doses required in its USA plant in a timely manner that order dictates?
This I don't know and if they can't then this is another fact that cannot be bent to Trump's will. But i they can and he orders them to do so he will find a judge that says with 3k+ deaths a day, to hell with our allies.

So when you do a trade-off between legal requirements, practical enforcement, and time-line required to deliver along with the cost-benefits- it all is totally toothless and grandstanding to show that he is doing something.
It's interesting, you are using exactly the same tactics as Trump is, repeat a false statement often enough and it will get true. I'm not saying it won't work, it worked for Trump for 4 years and if he hadn't bumped against reality in form of this virus so hard, it would have worked for 8.

A president is a lame duck only in a political sense. Constitutionally and legally he has all the power to do what he is legal till Jan 20th, including pressing the nuclear button just because he feels like doing so and providing national security as a pretext. It will take disobedience and subjugation of the military commanders (who under the law will have to bear the consequences of defying the president's order as long as it was legal). The problem with the legal system is that it doesn't legislate morality. It was never designed to in the first place.
He is a lame duck, because he will not be able to reward/punish people in the future. Otherwise all the legal protections are not worth much.
 
The sheer competence is mind-blowing. I agree it is a firing offense and I really want to know who was in the decision making chain and why it took them 3 days to figure out. Anhigh school kid could have coded a better algorithm than an institution that has probably won one of the highest number of nobel prize!

This is like enemy has invaded in massive numbers. You send soldiers to face the enemy fire and fight back. But instead of sending bullets to them, the bullets are sent to the generals directing the war back in headquarters.
It's not that hard to understand. Who hired the programmers and got the vaccine first? Who believes that people get payed according to their contribution and why do you think hospital admins are making way more than hospital workers? The algorithm is an excuse. They will maybe add the excuse it was an artificial intelligence because nobody knows how they work. They can also add something about blockchain and an advanced persistent nation state hacker, and everyone knows you can't do anything about that. This is not an error. You don't need an algorithm for distributing this vaccine in a hospital. Just put up a sign "Covid vaccine here, only doctors and nurses". Of course that is an algorithm :-).
 
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