The Polls

MamboJazz said:
Maybe the far-right has taken over then in France or Germany, interesting to think what they will do then with this strong army?
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The article says nothing about a joint European army. I don't think that has ever been seriously considered to the point of planning how it would operate, be paid for etc.
What has been mentioned is a European defense accord in which individual member armies coordinate with one another to maximize resource utilization (or something like that).

In maneuvers and practice runs with NATO and non-NATO members, the small countries always come out on top in terms of performance. Netherlands and Denmark are always the best prepared and trained. I can imagine that Sweden and Finland would perform equally well. Greece has a fairly large military, but they are more worried about Turkey that anyone else. Poland has upgraded their military capability recently. They may be the strongest military among EU countries today, i.e. better than France.

The other point in the article, that the US is no longer a reliable ally, is correct IMO.
 
www.theguardian.com

‘No military solution’ to Ukraine war, Rubio says ahead of Saudi meetings

First official meeting of two governments since disastrous Trump-Zelenskyy encounter comes as Russia intensifies attacks
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

I foresee Ukraine having to make big concessions to both Trump (USA) and Putin (Russia). Which was not imaginable till end of the last year. Not sure UK and Europe is going to have much impact on that no matter how many times its leaders talk and meet Trump.

It should be obvious to UK and EU leaders that there is little they can do to sway or influence Trump or his acolytes to their position. This is a salvage operations. It is like planting a doubt on whether god exists in mind of a religious believer.

This geopolitical drama is perhaps most interesting to witness since the fall of Berlin Wall and dissolution of USSR.

When I look at a wider range of views outside of Europe/UK/USA, they differ in both nuance and larger picture of the echo chamber of European views.
 
Offbeat said:


So Ukraine falls in line. A good move given very weak position and limited options it has. This will now test both Trump and Putin. Can he get Putin to agree to 30 days ceasefire and other terms :D Or will Putin try to overplay his hand.
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Again, perhaps the point of view changes depending on where you live. I have some ukrainian students, I see their pain whenever another of their family members or friend is killed. I think your “smiley” communicates a relaxing distance from all that is happening, which some of us don’t have. I mean this just as a statement, without emotions or anger. But honestly, I don’t find this specially funny.
 
Offbeat said:


So Ukraine falls in line. A good move given very weak position and limited options it has. This will now test both Trump and Putin. Can he get Putin to agree to 30 days ceasefire and other terms :D Or will Putin try to overplay his hand.
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Ruzzia will violate the cease fire and blame it on Ukraine. And of course Special Agent Krasnov will fall in line.
 
Governor Moonbeam said:
Ruzzia will violate the cease fire and blame it on Ukraine. And of course Special Agent Krasnov will fall in line.
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That is if Russia agrees to month long ceasefire in first place. As I predicted yesterday, Putin hasn’t responded and Kremlin doen’t like one month ceasefire proposal. At least today the Whitehouse is united on pushing for Russia to accept the one month ceasefire.

The question is if and at what time Putin losses off Trump. Unlike what many says, I think that is a possibility. Trump’s ego is huge. So far him doing Putin’s bidding might have it limits.

People say Putin has something to blackmail Trump. I doubt it. Assuming Putin does, so what? Trump can say Putin fabricated it and is lying. For the MAGA universe, Trump can do no wrong (so far). That’s why I said Putin doesn’t have a strong hand either. Not after the 3 years of abysmal performance of his military and economy that is powered by wartime production and handing big cheques to the widows of those killed on the front.
 
Latinjazz said:
Again, perhaps the point of view changes depending on where you live. I have some ukrainian students, I see their pain whenever another of their family members or friend is killed. I think your “smiley” communicates a relaxing distance from all that is happening, which some of us don’t have. I mean this just as a statement, without emotions or anger. But honestly, I don’t find this specially funny.
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The “smiley” was directed at the irony of Putin’s position, after Ukraine made the gambit of accepting American one month ceasefire proposal.

War and destruction is painful. It is doubly painful when you know someone closely or personally experiencing it. I regularly interact with dozen or more Ukrainian professionals who migrated after the invasion. Though no one has suffered a personal loss of near or dear one. Touchwood.

Yes the views do change depending on which lens you view it through. Seeing it from European lens it makes complete sense. Americans questioning the depth of their involvement also makes sense. The rest of the world that’s neither Europe nor USA, has its own views and that is understandable too.

If you want to seriously discuss geopolitics of it we can. As I say it is understandable how most Europeans would feel. Almost everyone irrespective of which side of geopolitics they are on will sympathize with Ukrainians and their plight. However that doesn’t change the realities of geopolitics.
 
www.buzzfeed.com

People With Trump-Supporting Significant Others Are Sharing Their Stories, And It's Heartbreaking

"My husband is a Trump voter, and there are times I just can’t love him in the same way anymore due to what MAGA stands for."
www.buzzfeed.com www.buzzfeed.com

MAGA has been ridiculing the Tesla owners. Largest share of Tesla owners are in California. MAGA therefore associates Tesla with liberals and those who care about the climate.

Yesterday Trump bought Tesla as a show of support for Musk. A lot of Tesla owners are already mad at Musk. The stock market tanked due to Trump tarrifs. Musk and Trump think there is a conspiracy to bring down Tesla stock. Tesla stock is always way overpriced and some of it is due to Musk fan boys (this was before he turned right and was not in politics). None of justifications on why it is not overpriced never made any fundamental sense.
 
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This is an academic countering Mearshiemer University of Chicago professor) who is consider father of the offensive realism. For those who don’t know him, he is considered one of foremost minds in geopolitics. He also faults USA with NATO expansion. His most famous lecture I think is from 2015 where he predicted the trajectory of that caused today’s Ukraine war. He has critics (academics, since he is an academic and heavily respected for his scholarship).

It is very interesting to hear this gentleman. This clip is from 2 years back when Biden was fully backing Ukraine and totally against Putin (as opposed to Trump’s current position). He completely articulates the European position. For anyone wanting to understand the European perspective, I think he has done a good job.
 
Offbeat said:

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It is very interesting to hear this gentleman. This clip is from 2 years back when Biden was fully backing Ukraine and totally against Putin (as opposed to Trump’s current position). He completely articulates the European position. For anyone wanting to understand the European perspective, I think he has done a good job.
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This man (Alexander Stubb) is the president of Finland since last year.
 
Little children having an argument in the sandbox: Trump put 25% tariffs on EU steel from yesterday on, now EU reacts with 50% tariffs (!) on whiskey, jeans and peanut butter from april on, and now Trump is threatening with 200% (!!) on EU wine and champagne. Could EU now threaten with 400% on bachata sensual teachings in US?
 
Interesting things to learn about Afd, which I didn’t know. Reminds me of evangelicals in the USA rallying behind Trump, despite he being the opposite of their values.

People are willing to accept a devil’s bargain as long as their priorities are addressed. For the evangelicals it was abortion. It also overlapped with the mix of white grievances and white nationalism (which is what really is MAGA) since evangelicals are overwhelmingly white.


www.nbcnews.com

Alice Weidel doesn’t fit the profile of a far-right politician. The German AfD is willing to look past it.

Weidel led the Alternative for Germany, a male-dominated party accused of far-right extremism, from the fringes into the heart of power.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

Weidel, who has previously praised the importance of children being raised in a traditional, nuclear family and has said that legalizing same-sex marriage is unimportant, nonetheless raises her two sons with her Sri Lankan-born female partner of 20 years, Sarah Bossard, in Willerzell, a sleepy village in the heart of Switzerland with around 1,000 residents. (Officially, she is registered as a resident of Überlingen, in Germany, just over the border from Switzerland.)

The AfD has opposed gay marriage and the expansion of laws allowing same-sex couples to adopt, but Weidel has said her sexuality does not conflict with the AfD’s traditional values, and analysts say the party’s rank and file are prepared to overlook her family life as long as she brings them success.

The party was able to harness simmering hostilities against both Muslims and foreigners, as well as anti-E.U. sentiment, building a stronghold in the regions that once made up East Germany, where skepticism toward NATO and the country’s support for Ukraine in its war against Russia remains high.
 
While European leaders are now showing pragmatism in face of Trump, it also demonstrates that idealism doesn’t work when it comes to geopolitics.


In the ensuing days, Ukraine’s allies, led by France and the U.K., leaned on Zelensky in a way they haven’t since the war began in 2022, pushing for concessions the U.S. demanded as they raced to help craft a cease-fire offer that the Trump administration later accepted and then presented to Moscow earlier this week.
For the Europeans, pressing Zelensky was a change in tack. Since the war began, its leaders had insisted that Ukraine’s future was for Ukraine to decide, largely leaving Zelensky to outline Kyiv’s demands. Now it was clear that the Ukrainian leader needed to be nudged. This account of how they managed that is based on conversations with around a dozen officials familiar with the negotiations.
The Europeans had to ensure Zelensky understood that his bargaining position was much weaker following the White House meeting, and that Ukraine would lose out if he were perceived as public enemy No. 1 in Washington.
 
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www.nbcnews.com

Russian forces closing in on Ukrainian troops in Kursk, official says

In the days since the Trump administration temporarily suspended military and intelligence assistance to Kyiv, Russian forces have stepped up attacks on Ukrainian troops in the region, officials and an analyst said.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

Several independent western intelligence and open source intelligence analysts have been suggesting that the Ukrainian troops in Kursk region are almost surrounded. The reports also say Ukrainians are systematically withdrawing back into their own border. Ukraine has continued to deny they are surrounded or situation is dire. Some “experts” in the west also pooh pooh that Russians have managed to to surround the Ukrainian troops.
 
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