Strait of Hormuz/Gas/Conflict Related Cancellations
- Thread starter AguaDulce
- Start date
Other than travel related disruptions causing higher airfares, I don’t see how countries outside the Arab Peninsula and Iran are affected to extent that they would have to cancel a festival. Economically Egypt is far worse hit due to the gulf crisis. Türkiye not in immediate terms.
Local economy in Türkiye was already facing headwinds before the conflict. If the inflation is raising the cost of hosting, the conflict has probably caused barely profitable to turn into not profitable.
I was thinking about things like attendance drops due to expensive travel, event organizers facing higher costs, airlines cutting routes, etc. If not a cancellation, perhaps even a scaled back event. I've read there are some isolated cases of fuel rationing such as Slovenia introducing limits per vehicle per day? I think the Philippines is the closest example of a true national level energy emergency, but there aren't any popular salsa events there.
Istanbul Dance Marathon was scheduled for october, still half a year away, so it comes as a surprise they cancel already now. In Dubai they cancelled only one month before. Probably the turkish are just realistic, how shall this conflict end this year? Airline prices raise so less people will come, so the festival may not be profitable anymore.
Apart from that the turkish indeed fear they might be Israel's next target. Both israeli and turkish ministers have spoken out about that, the Netanjahu administration will always need enemies. Unlikely this year bombing Turkey, but maybe in the near future. Sounds crazy, but what's crazy these days.
Apart from that the turkish indeed fear they might be Israel's next target. Both israeli and turkish ministers have spoken out about that, the Netanjahu administration will always need enemies. Unlikely this year bombing Turkey, but maybe in the near future. Sounds crazy, but what's crazy these days.
That festival may have had a non-trivial % of tickets sold to people from UAE/Lebanon or from East Asia. So it may be more affected than others.
I was personally going to book the bachata festival at Kos, Greece that is early September but am postponing for now, it's very likely that I don't go at the end. So I do expect events to take a measurable hit in attendance, even if not region-adjacent. If people are uncertain, they hesitate and eventually drop plans.
I was personally going to book the bachata festival at Kos, Greece that is early September but am postponing for now, it's very likely that I don't go at the end. So I do expect events to take a measurable hit in attendance, even if not region-adjacent. If people are uncertain, they hesitate and eventually drop plans.
Reminds me that I got Kos Salsaking on my maybe-list which is just the week after.
Indeed festivals on islands or somewhat remote from most dancers may be hit hard by the airplane crisis. I haven't yet thought about it as I live in densely populated middle europe where I guess most people go to most festivals over land, at least I do (train, flixbus). But festivals unreachable for most going over land for just a weekend might suffer.
Turkey isn’t as impacted though it may be geographically adjacent to conflict zone. The Turkish Airline is still one of the main routes connecting Asia and Europe now that whole of Gulf is risky as a hub.
Turkey has already been facing economic headwinds before conflict independently. It had very high inflation for two three years of last five years. That was primarily due to economic mismanagement. Due to how Turkey gets its energy and fertilizer supplies, it is more shielded than countries that have been affected in worse ways. Like Egypt and Pakistan which are closer to conflict zone than Turkey and are in dire economic situation. It also affecting middle income or lower income countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Philippines etc in a bad way. South Korea and Japan are facing economic challenges but they both have strong economics.
I have seen isolated reports like Israel will attack Turkey or Pakistan next. These clickbaits and fear mongering are very far fetched. A major portion of Israel’s oil flows through Turkey. Despite Erdogan’s bombastic pronouncements, he has quietly made sure that oil continues to transit to Israel because it earns billions annually through that arrangement. Erdogan likes to project himself as leader of Islamic world (which itself is fragmented). It is more for his domestic audience.
Israel will have to think thrice. Turkey is a NATO member and can invoke article 5 if attacked. Israel will also have to secure its energy supplies from alternative sources. Gulf was never an option. There is no strategic gains for Israel to attack Turkey. Like Iran closed Hormuz, Turkey can halt all shipping from Baltic Sea. That will have major impact on food supplies to Africa continent and other countries.
If airfare continues to increase, I wonder if it will create reluctance to fly in "artists" at some of these events. For example, Back To Mambo in October has some people flying to Europe from the states. At what point, does it become cost prohibitive?
I have flown internationally after the conflict started. At least till recently I didn’t saw limited impact on airfares. If you spend a time searching, you can still find good price with tier one airlines. May be add an stop instead of non-stop. I flew half way across the world for what it would cost to fly to NYC on a reasonable fares. Airlines were not yet passing on higher fuel costs to fliers. That might change as the airline fuel prices remain high. It depends on what type of pricing arrangement airlines have with their suppliers. I recall once before when Delta was unaffected because they had a long term contract for the fuel. Last week there were reports that Europe had only 6 weeks of airline fuel left.
If people fly less that also puts pressure on airlines to not increase the prices. The fuel costs will force them to increase the price. I think we will see price increase as the summer approaches. But the prices always increase during the summer.
If price increases by 15% that would be $115 for a $100 ticket and $690 for what would have been a $600 ticket. Is that cost prohibitive to stop traveling for those who have strong desire? I doubt. It will depend on how high the total costs for attending a festival is .
Can't speak for Europe but I have been reading that there are some increases recently in the USA. Some of these don't show up in the baseline ticket price. For example, there has been talk that all major US airlines have raised checked bag fees recently. Instead of raising the base fare, airlines sometimes also add fuel surcharges. Airlines are also cancelling or reducing flights to control costs and fewer seats can lead to higher prices. Another thought is that less is included in the ticket. But yeah, I don't think anything industry wide that is major has hit yet, but I have heard some people complaining about prices going up. Hard to generalize though from anecdotal information or one person's experience.
I think the question is how much increase in fare price (total cost of flight ticket) will give dancers a second thought. At 15% rise I doubt. At 25% is where I think people will probably stop traveling. But who knows.
1derpalm
Son Montuno
I would predict a "turkey invokea article 5, but u.s.a still supports Israel and uses it as a final excuse to pull out of Nato, whilst also using rubio to sow his "Christian roots" agenda to divide turkey between Muslims and Christian minority" type stuation.
If I was getting paranoid and distrustful, that is
A few European countries already did that when in 2000s they sabotaged Turkey’s chances of joining EU. Erdogan’s coming to power in the first place was result of how some European countries denied advancement of process which would have eventually led to Turkey joining EU. If I recall debate from that time, it would have taken 20 years or so. Eventually Trukey gave up on attempts to join the EU.
I do not seen any good reason for Israel to attack Turkey. They were both supplying arms to Azerbaijan during its conflict with Armenia a few years back.
Events that rely on international travelers should def be concerned: Magic, Rovinj, Salsa Rave, etc. Even if the Strait is open today it will take about 6 months to clean up the mines. I’m seeing increases of $200 dollars or more in a lot of the flights, and lots of routes are getting cut. If the prices are a little higher but the trek because of the connections to get to a place gets harder many will sit this year out. And if you are an organizer that needs to fly in international talent, good luck.
bailar y tocar
Son Montuno
They may have to put down a deposit to hold the rental of the venue. If they put the money down now and then cancelled later, they would very likely not get their deposit refunded.
bailar y tocar
Son Montuno
There are a few budget airlines that are near bankrupt or might even be liquidated (Spirit Airlines). If that happens, the remaining airlines can jack up the price a whole lot more.
My recent airfares increased 10% from one day to the next but have stayed steady since then.