None of your arguments apply to what I've seen, and you're very colored by what you want to believeSo let's address some confounders:
What does "long term" mean -- for how many years are you following these kids? Are you following them for the same time period?
How exactly do you rate their initial talent? Or is it subjective? And if so, is it possible a different coach would rate their talent differently?
Are you objectively assessing their performance vs. each other and vs. their starting point over time, across different measures, or again is this all subjective perception?
As for how they compare against each other (the "more talented" vs. the "less talented") -- do they compete against each other on specific metrics, or is it just subjective perception? If yes, is it possible another coach would rate them differently?
Do you know for sure that what seems to be talent is not in fact prior experience/training you may not be aware of? What about accounting for parents/older siblings who might be giving them special training?
I can think of more data points but these are just a few that I think would really bias/confound your anecdotal data.
However, I absolutely admit it applies to some sports more than others - I find talented students star in baseball regardless of training and experience more so than in hockey, and in athletics more so than in swimming. One of my hockey players who graduated last year and was trained by his brother (surprise, surprise, I am aware of this! My students and I do actually talk
Totally respect your conclusions and point of view, and especially Offbeat's opinion, due to his colossal amount of experience and exposure to different scenes. Just allow me to differ somewhat in my personal view